American Express preview and betting tips 2023
American Express Golf Tips
Sungjae Im 25/1 - 2pts Win
Tom Hoge 55/1 - 2pts Win
Andrew Putnam 80/1 - 0.5pt Win
Taylor Montgomery 50/1 - 1pt Win
Brendan Todd 100/1 - 1pt E/W 10 Places
Carl Yuan 300/1 - 1pt E/W 10 Places
Cam Davis 8/1 - 2pts Top 7 Finish
Shakin’ Si Woo wins the weekend…
What was worse, the Speith collapse or Tom Kim’s putting?
A tournament of two halves last week developed; I was more surprised by the likes of Tom Kim and Sungjae Im just missing the cut generally, on what was an obvious course that suited both of them. Speith’s collapse meanwhile, Keegan Bradley style, we’ve seen it before, is not a surprise anymore but I am surprised it came when he was leading the field in every department pretty much. Whether you take that as getting the bad round out the way or whether that is a sign of the season to come for Jordan, I’ll let you decide, but I won’t be surprised if I’m tipping him to win at some point in the next few months.
I felt quite encouraged again though, with my 5 picks last week. I called -18 winning score as I didn’t predict as many birdies as others were, and I landed a massive 120/1 on Chris Kirk First round leader which really helped save the week in terms of returns. Also I had a great Draftkings line up where I finished 20th out of 2.5K, a line up which consisted of all 5 of my picks so that says it all really for a good week all in all. So, despite no outright wins, we’ll be looking for some more value to steal this week.
What a nice little tussle we had in the end though to watch on Sunday. It was actually quite refreshing to see some names that have never been close to winning before.
Si Woo, prevailed though, getting the job done, and Buckley just made too many mistakes in the last couple holes. Serious Kudos to Si Woo for those last 4 shots, the ridiculous chip followed by the gun bunker shot from about 220 yards, he just deserved to win it based on those two shots, great Sunday drama again.
How do we cope with 3 courses…
So this week, we move onto the American Express. Now as some of you may know, the American Express is played over three courses all fairly similar in length and strength, we think, with two rounds being played on the stadium course at PGA West. We think the other two courses are not as strong but we actually don’t really know much, because amazingly, there is still no shot data at the tournament course or La Quinta country club. Surely that will change in the future.
The stadium course though just based on scores to par seems to be a little bit harder than the other two, Pete Dye design and its short, 7,187 yards, Par 72. It’s a desert type resort course and even though we see Tifgreen Bermudagrass on the fairways and short Ryegrass in the Rough, the Green’s are not that easy to predict they all have POA overseed, this is not regular Bermuda. This tends to put the emphasis on just good putters this week; not least the birdie fest we are going to get but it’s not really a place where we can look at golfers who are better on Bermuda or Bentgrass greens.
In previous years we’ve seen huge odds win here like last year we saw Hudson Swafford win at a massive 250/1 and a couple of years ago we saw Andrew Landry and Adam Long win at huge odds. So you’d think this year we can go big again. I tend to have the feeling this week though that we are not going to see those deep odds again here. This is the strongest field we have had for a long time and also those 200/1 shots we’ve had in previous years seem to be listed at around 80/1 now in terms of calibre. This is not me saying however we won’t see some strange names towards the top of leaderboard this week, because we will and it could literally be anyone’s week.
2022: Swafford 175/1; 2021: Kim 66/1; 2020: Landry 200/1; 2019: Long 600/1; 2018: Rahm 10/1; 2017: Swafford 66/1; 2016: Dufner 40/1; 2015: Haas 30/1; 2014: Reed 135/1; 2013: Gay 80/1; 2012: Wilson 125/1; 2011: Vegas 200/1; 2010: Haas 100/1. Past 9 Renewals Average: 147/1; Overall Average: 141/1.
Early looks & Data
As this week could be hard to choose again, my shortlist currently has 15 golfers on it, I’m happy to keep the data quite broad rather than some niche data that I run my models at certain courses. There is a bit more emphasis off the tee, so I will look for some Strokes gained Off the tee data and also some driving accuracy. However I still believe much like last week, I want a good solid putter that scrambles well, and stays out of trouble. Recent Form and Course form can be something I can really rely on with my plays especially when the data is missing from two of the three courses played on.
I expect a winning score to be in the mid -20’s much like we’ve seen in previous years, so scores will be deep. I also really like Par 3 scoring and a bit of Par 4 scoring as data this week. Par 3 scoring because they seem to be the hardest scoring holes on the Stadium course, so birdie’s on the par 3’s will really gain strokes against the rest of the field. Some Par 4 scoring data mainly because everyone will be picking up eagles and birdies on the par 5’s across all the courses because they are all reachable, so this data will help. I also really like players that are good with their Prox. Approach between 150-175 yards. This kind of range for me this week is where most 2nd shots are going to be played so I can lead on that data too. So with that being in mind…
My model to help with my picks this week is as follows;
SG Tee to green
Proximity from 150-175 yards
Short course form
Previous tournament top 10’s
Par 3 & Par 4 Performance
Birdies per round
Top 20 players based on that model;
1 Tony Finau 14/1
2 Will Zalatoris 20/1
3 Jon Rahm 13/2
4 Sungjae Im 20/1
5 Patrick Cantlay 2642 11/1
6 Scottie Scheffler 10/1
7 Brian Harman 33/1
8 Tom Hoge 40/1
9 Cameron Davis 50/1
10 Charley Hoffman 300/1
11 Tom Kim 20/1
12 Lee Hodges 140/1
13 Xander Schauffele 20/1
14 Sean O'Hair TBC
15 Cameron Young 22/1
16 SiWoo Kim 33/1
17 David Lingmerth 225/1
18 Adam Hadwin 60/1
19 Brendon Todd 125/1
20 Andrew Putnam 50/1
21 James Hahn 275/1
22 Taylor Pendrith 80/1
23 Luke List 125/1
24 Justin Rose 75/1
25 KyoungHoon Lee 55/1
Honestly, this is a bit of lottery this week let’s be honest, but I really hope we have found some great value with some well rounded players and plays that offer us so much variety for outright picks. Let’s hope for a big hit and look out for my other match ups and First Round Leader plays throughout the week. If you want to play my new weekly fantasy competition, look out for my updates on my twitter @tomford9931 and my site www.drawshankgolf.com .
Sungjae Im – 2pts win (25/1)
A couple of picks this week that I want to give another chance to, and Sungjae is one of those. He was my one and done last week and just wasn’t at the races for some reason but I really think he has a great chance here. He is as long as anyone on tour and consistently gains strokes tee to green, hence why he is far up on my model. Another reason why Sungjae out of those top 10 stood out, his data from 150-175 yards the distance as I said earlier where most 2nd shots are going to be played from, he is the best from that range. He’s never finished worse than 12th here, let’s continue the Korea train.
Tom Hoge – 2pts to each way 55/1
A popular pick this week, so I won’t say much other than he has seriously good form at this event, and what we seen in the last few weeks, he can only be on the upward trend. Tom Hoge hasn’t lost strokes on his approach play for 6 months, astonishing stats.
Andrew Putnam – 0.5 pts win 80/1
Andrew Putnam is someone you want to have on your card in a birdie fest. Holed putts from further than anyone last week, and is just becoming someone to look out for on leaderboards. 12th now on the Fedex standings this year and its mainly down to his putting stroke, deadly, and if you watched him last week he can go low on any round, 3 of those rounds this week and you just might see him near the top.
Taylor Montgomery – 1pts win 50/1
Well here is a tip for you, this won’t be the first time I say this, Montgomery will win on tour this year it’s just a matter of when. He’s continuing to knock on the door, he is ready for the biggest of tests and he has the most fantastic short game. Tidy up a few of them irons and we could be looking at a major winner. Auto back for me this week. LFG Monty.
Brendan Todd – 1pt each way at 100/1 (10 Places)
15th best for birdie average, 20th best on tour for putts per round, this guy is a devil with the flat stick, if he puts the ball in the right places this week, 10 places at 100/1 is simply disgustingly good.
Carl Yuan – 1pt each way at 300/1 (10 Places)
You may not have heard of Carl Yuan, but he is slowly becoming the best rookie on tour for his approach stats at the very least, and he wasn’t bad with the putter either last week finishing T21. He is not quite at the standard of the likes of Montgomery yet but signs are very encouraging for this mature youngster who I’m sure will be a multiple PGA tour winner in the future. Plenty of experience for his age at courses like this one, 300/1 for 10 places is a great opportunity to show of his talent this week.
Cam Davis – (Top 7 Finish) 2pts 8/1
Another one I couldn’t resist again this week. Cam suits this course even more than last week, we just need his putter to start firing. I don’t think he wins it for that reason but a play on a Top 7 finish for me has a great chance. As I said last week, long and straight and he could be 20/30 yards further down the fairway than anyone else, won’t have many issues where he is in trouble, just need the putter to fire.