Genesis Invitational preview and betting tips 2023
Genesis Invitational Golf Tips
Justin Thomas 18/1 - 8 places 1.5pts E/W
Collin Morikawa 22/1 - 8 places 1.5pts E/W
Sam Burns 30/1 - 8 places 2pts E/W
Wyndham Clark 90/1 - 8 places 1pt E/W
Proper golf is truly well underway now with the excitement of the Phoenix Open last week with Scottie Scheffler returning to the top of the game as world number one after an impressive ball striking display all week where he ranked 1st on approach and 1st T2G. That was somehow Scottie’s first win since the 2022 Masters 10 months ago. This week we return to Riviera Country Club for The Genesis Invitational, another elevated event by the PGA Tour. We also have the return of Tiger Woods this week, who is also the host of the tournament. The Netflix golf documentary ‘Full Swing’ is also released on Wednesday so all in all this is a very good week for any golf fan.
Riviera Country Club is a 7,322 yard par 71 and it has hosted the Genesis Invitational on over 50 separate occasions. It’s definitely a course to look out for on the PGA Tour circuit and there is clear correlation with success at the Masters being a good indicator to players who have played well at Riviera in the past. With this event being one of the several elevated events on Tour we have a stellar field including last week’s winner Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and many more top players. 23 of the top 25 players in the world will be teeing it up this week.
Key Stats Analysis
Some key stats ahead of Riviera looking back at the previous winners, strong driving seems to be preferred this week. 4 of the last 6 winners were inside the top-20 for SG: Off The Tee, Homa and Dustin Johnson were inside the top-3. Approach play seems to be key every year at the Genesis, 5 of the last 6 winners were inside the top-21 for SG: Approach, Niemann ranked 1st and Adam Scott ranked 3rd. Every winner over the past 6 events ranked inside the top-15 for GIR. Scott, JB Holmes and DJ all ranked 1st in this statistic. You must hit greens if you want to succeed at Riviera.
Justin Thomas 18/1
First name on the list for me is world number 7 Justin Thomas. JT is coming off the back of a strong performance in the desert in Phoenix with a final round 65 where he ranked 1st on approach and 1st T2G as well as ranking 8th off the tee. Good indicators ahead of the test at Riviera. His course form is really encouraging too with three top-10s here including a runner up finish in 2019. With two top-5 finishes over his last 4 starts I’d expect JT to go close this week at a course he clearly likes. He’s a very backable price at 18/1.
Collin Morikawa 22/1
Next up is a player who usually plays well after a very poor week the week before and that is Collin Morikawa. Collin missed the cut at last year’s Open, finishing 5th the week after. He missed the cut in last year’s Memorial and finished 5th in the US Open the week after. When he won the Open in 2021, he finished T71 the week before so clearly a bad week doesn’t bother him too much, in all honesty I thought we’d get a bit more of a price on him but I’m still happy to take the 22/1. Morikawa finished 2nd in this event last year and played really well over the weekend. Over the last 20 rounds he ranks 1st on approach amongst players in this field and I think we can expect a good performance this week from the world number 9.
Sam Burns 30/1
Sam Burns could’ve won this event in 2021 but a lack of experience when leading after 36 holes eventually cost him with a poor weekend of 74-69 and he finished 3rd. If put into that position now after 36 holes you’d certainly expect him to hang around and more than likely close out given what he’s done on Tour over the last 2 years. Burns is a four time winner on the PGA Tour and he accumulated those four wins in the space of 13 months. He was clearly one of the best players in the world at that time and I think we’ll see another good year from this insane talent. Burns’ game is clearly in good shape after a top-10 at TPC Scottsdale in Phoenix. I think Burns can go right to the top of the game and he can follow in his best friend Scottie Scheffler by winning the week after. At 30/1, he’s my favourite bet of the week.
Wyndham Clark 90/1
Last up for me this week is a bit of a longshot with Wyndham Clark who did impress me in Phoenix. A poor week putting cost him from really contending but he hit the ball to a very good standard all week, finishing 8th on approach and finishing T10 in the tournament. Four top-20s in his last 8 events is the sign of a player in solid form and he can take this form into an event at a course he has played well at on two separate occasions. He finished 17th in 2020 and 8th in 2021, can he go one better and win the event this year? Let’s hope so! He’s yet to win on the PGA Tour yet but he represents a really good each way bet this week and I’m happy to have him in my staking plan.