Charles Schwab Challenge preview and golf betting tips 2023
Danny Specks Charles Schwab Challenge Golf Tips
2pts ew Sungjae Im 22/1 (8)
2pts ew Justin Rose 28/1 (8)
1pt ew Cam Davis 45/1 (6)
1pt ew Kurt Kitayama 66/1 (8)
0.5pt ew Sepp Straka 125/1 (6)
Brooks Koepka wins his fifth major championship in impressive style by two strokes over Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland. The LIV golfer, Koepka, went close at Augusta National at the Masters when losing out to Jon Rahm to show the golfing world that he was close to returning to the form he showed through 2017-2019 when he won four majors in a two-year period. He has to be a genuine runner for the two other majors this year and will certainly be close to the shortlist.
This week we return to Fort Worth, Texas at Colonial Country Club, a 7,209 yard par 70. The PGA TOUR is playing the John Bredemus/Perry Maxwell design for the 78th time, making this the longest-running non-major on TOUR to be contested on the same course. Sam Burns returns to defend his title from last season where he defeated his good friend Scottie Scheffler in a playoff, Scottie also returns this week. Other players teeing it up this week are course specialist Jordan Spieth, PGA Championship runner up Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa and many more. A really solid field in Texas in a week after a major.
Key Stats Analysis
Looking back at the last five winners of this event and their stats and strokes-gained tee-to-green is a statistic that keeps popping up. Each of the last five winners were all ranked inside the top-10 for this, Justin Rose topped this statistic in 2018 when victorious. Approach play is also key with four of the last five winners ranking inside the top-10 for this, Rose (2018) and Na (2019) ranked 1st on approach. Four of the last five winners also ranked inside the top-5 for GIR (Greens hit in Regulation), so good iron play is absolutely vital at Colonial Country Club.
Sungjae Im 22/1
World number nineteen Sungjae Im is my headline pick this week. He’s coming to Texas on the back of a weekend off and a missed cut in a major championship, this missed cut could be partly due to the fact he went and won a tournament over in his home country South Korea, the week before the PGA Championship. I actually think the weekend off will have done him some good as many golf fans know this guy rarely takes a week off. Sungjae’s course form is mixed, his form here reads 15-MC-10-MC, a bad putting week last year really cost him from contending. Apart from last week, he’s gained strokes with the putter in nearly every event since a missed cut in Hawaii back in January. His T2G game is in top shape currently and he has four top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour from the Players Championship in March. Sungjae had to be included in the staking plan this week.
Justin Rose 28/1
Justin Rose is my next pick and his return to form in 2023 has been remarkable and he’s certainly put himself in the best position possible to make his sixth Ryder Cup appearance come September. He tees it up this week off the back of a top-10 finish in the PGA Championship and finishing in a respectable T16 at Augusta National. Inbetween this he also finished top-25 in the RBC Heritage where he gained strokes in every department. A winner here in 2018 and a 3rd place finish at Colonial in 2020, the course form also stacks up. Over the last 20 rounds, Rose ranks as the fourth best player among players in the field this week and there’s plenty of reasons to believe he’ll be contending come the back nine this Sunday.
Cam Davis 45/1
Aussie Cam Davis is going to be a very popular pick this week as he should be after an extremely eye-catching week at the PGA Championship where he ranked inside the top-5 for strokes-gained tee-to-green. This was also his first top-5 in a major championship so confidence should be flowing, as well as his top-10 at the RBC Heritage back in April. He ranks currently as the 11th best player in the Charles Schwab field and his price of 45/1 doesn’t really reflect that. A top-10 finish here last year when finishing seventh is fuel to the case of why I think Cam Davis an outstanding each way investment this week.
Kurt Kitayama 66/1
Next up is another player who finished strong at Oak Hill with a Sunday 65 and that’s the ever improving Kurt Kitayama. He finished alongside Cam Davis last week in T4 and ranked 6th on approach. His iron play clearly in good shape when gaining eight strokes in last week's major. Austin Country Club ranks as a solid course correlation this week and that was where Kitayama was a quarter final loser back in March. Kurt was also a winner this season in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, an elevated event with the strongest field possible. Another player who I think is just too big of a price this week, the 66/1 on offer is certainly value in my eyes.
Sepp Straka 125/1
Last but not least is the big Austrian Sepp Straka who is doing everything he can to try to get himself into the Ryder Cup team. A winner in 2022 at The Honda Classic when beating Shane Lowry and an unlucky playoff loser to Will Zalatoris in the FedEx St Jude Championship last year, he’s a European who does get overlooked when it comes to the Ryder Cup talk and he can go well this week at a juicy price. A seriously impressive top-10 finish at the PGA Championship last week, he can use that as a platform to get contending again at the top of leaderboards. Not to mention he ranked 2nd on approach and 5th tee-to-green last week, 125/1 is just simply too big for a player of his ability.
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