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  • Writer's pictureTom Ford

Golf betting tips: The US Open preview and bets 2024

Ludvig Aberg

Tom Ford's US Open Golf Tips

Collin Morikawa 19/1 – 3pts Win
Ludvig Aberg 28/1 – 2pts Win
Brooks Koepka 30/1 - 2pts Win
Tommy Fleetwood 50/1 - 2pts Win
Matt Fitzpatrick 38/1 - 1pt E/W (10 Places)
Sahith Theegala 45/1 – 1pt EW (10 Places)

As we return to another major, I’ve decided not to do the usual long-winded models and golf takes you may be accustomed to with these previews and instead, we are going to keep this more of a bit of light entertainment and if Scottie lets us, we’re going to ask the bookies to get the safe open for us this weekend.

The U.S. Open, this week, if you didn’t already know will be held at Pinehurst No. 2, a historic venue in North Carolina. The Mona Lisa of golf courses—beautiful, mysterious, and slightly intimidating. This marks the fourth time Pinehurst No. 2 hosts the championship, with the last event held there in 2014, which Martin Kaymer surprisingly had the week of his life winning, and then went on to play a pivotal role in the Ryder Cup that year. In that renewal in 2014, what we really learned was technical patience was rewarded and it was not an out-the-gates type of tournament. This year we will see that again but I believe twofold. The fairways and greens seem to have only got faster, harder and they plan to make this one of the toughest renewals in a long time. I see the winning score in the single digits and much like we saw at Augusta this year, there could be a huge gap between the best in the game and those who are still searching for something.

Deep Snorkel into the Course…

Pinehurst No. 2 is known for its challenging layout, designed originally by Donald Ross, known for designing courses that make grown men cry and golfers reconsider their life choices. It features 7,588 yards, par 72, with 111 sand bunkers and large greens covered in Champion Ultradwarf Bermuda Grass. The course's design is expected to test players' accuracy and strategy​ as before mentioned. The most exciting part about this week for me is the lack of grass. Normally we associate US Open’s with tough punishing rough right up and around greens and to the side of fairway complexes. This week it couldn't be more different. Sandy waste areas, wiregrass mounds and fast run-off areas sucking up golf balls like lovely new Dyson Vaccum. If you can’t scramble forget it, if you're a club thrower, forget it, if you think you can spike on Friday and Sunday but be over par on Saturday, again, forget it.

Of course, you could be a freak and dial it in all week and just keep hitting greens, problem is, the fairway and greens are going to be so hard and fast that even a good shot could be punished and that is a recipe for someone with only the mental fortitude to just keep plodding away and making the right moves at the right time.

Fairways are cut fine in almost all areas like you would find around the greens, you could hit what you think is a great tee shot and walk down there and just find your ball in a horrible lie above your feet in the wispy stuff. Greens are like upside-down saucepans, if you don’t find the middle of them, you could be 60 yards through them, in yes, you guessed it the ‘sandy wispy stuff’. 

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Who really can contend…

Rather than the test of the brave, it's more the test of your tolerance and composure, and well that already takes out most of the field. Surprisingly you’d think golfers at the top of the game don’t get frustrated, but trust me it's just as annoying for these guys as us amateur golfers, just on a larger scale, with a camera following you.

I believe this week can be getable on the betting front. I see the golfers in form, bet guys who you already know from what we’ve seen that are hitting their spot at the right time, or maybe those that have just been consistent all year and just look like winning. When it comes to the LIV side of things, with that theory in mind, only really Bryson, Brooks, and Neimann look like those may be on the shortlist. Over everything else we see, Morikawa, Hovland, Schauffele, and MacIntyre look those the ones hitting their form at the right time and ready to challenge the world No1.

This year's U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 promises not only top-tier golf but also moments of sheer hilarity and excitement as players navigate one of the most storied courses in the sport. From unlikely heroes to laugh-out-loud mishaps, it's a spectacle you won't want to miss

A recap of what we are looking for when picking our card this week.

  1. Driving Accuracy: Keeping the ball in the fairway is crucial. Maybe the odd confident long iron, the narrow quick fairways and punitive wiregrass will punish everything errant.

  2. Approach Shots: With large, undulating greens, players need to place their approach shots carefully to avoid difficult putts, this means being capable of turning your golf ball both ways and at different trajectories

  3. Short Game: The course's bunkers and run-off areas test players' chipping and bunker play. Proficiency in the short game can save crucial strokes.

  4. Putting: The fast, undulating greens require excellent putting. Players need to be able to read greens well and have a confident stroke, even from 70/80 yards away off the green.

A quick mention as I have before, I will be making a lot of my bets twice this week, with the (Without Scottie Scheffler) market available and maybe even some forecasts so look out for those. 

Well, well here it is, my outright Masters card. As always follow me on Twitter/X @fordysgolftips for the rest of my card and plays for the week, as I'm sure there will be plenty more. I hope the above has given you enough hints and tips to go on when making your plays and bets.

Collin Morikawa 19/1 3pts Win

For me, the most in-form player right now and stands out as someone who can consistently save Par and keep his game on the straight and narrow. Putting the best he has in years and we all know how good of a ball striker he is, he can do back-to-back weeks fighting with Scottie.

Ludvig Aberg - 28/1 2pts Win

Ludwig as we all know, is quietly going about his business to be the guy that challenges Scottie to world No. 1 status. Sneakily he is the best on tour for 3 putt avoidance and that's not to say he hasn't got a great chip in his repertoire too. 6 top 10’s this year is enough for me to take odds we may not get again with another big performance.

Brooks Koepka - 30/1 2pts Win

This suits Brooks perfectly, long and straight, inventive and has coolness running through his veins. We all know the stone-cold killer he is, and signs last week in Houston he’s just bubbling at the right time for another major.

Tommy Fleetwood - 50/1 2pts Win

With scoring going to be tough, and Tommy only missing two cuts in two years, everything tells me he has the temperament to go close in a major again. Grew up on courses like this one, and the without Scottie market appeals to me here too. Let’s go Tommy Lad.

Matt Fitzpatrick – 38/1 1pt E/W (10 Places)

Of all the previous US Open winners, I think Fitzy has the best chance this week. Finding form at the right time; 5th best in the field for total driving and 10th best with the flat stick, ideal course and comes into this not in a dissimilar place to his US Open win 2 years ago, not to mention the Billy Foster factor.

Sahith Theegala – 45/1 1pt E/W (10 Places)

Another form player, can you see the theme here, 5th best player on tour this year, an inventive golfer, with a great caddy to keep him ticking away. Sahith has the all-round game to win this, consistency is running through his bones right now, let’s just hope he’s got that dog in him to get over the line.

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