John Nelson's golf betting tips: Farmers Insurance Open preview and bets

John Nelson's Farmers Insurance Open Golf Tips

Max Homa 10/1 - 3pts Win

Min Woo Lee 28/1 - 3pts EW 8 places

Sepp Straka 50/1 - 1pt EW 8 places

Greyson Sigg 200/1 - 0.5pt EW 8 places

Well, the Amex did not disappoint with Nick Dunlap becoming the first winning amateur since Phil Mickelson in 1991, unfortunately for Dunlap though he didn't get to keep the winner's cheque. We now move swiftly onto San Diego, California to one of my favourite courses Torrey Pines South and North course which hosts a stellar field this week.

Course

TORREY PINES SOUTH COURSE

It is a Par 72, and a beast of  7,802 yards, designed in 1957 by William Francis Bell, and redesigned by Rees Jones in 2019 just before the 2021 US Open, this is the longest course on the PGA Tour, it's a beautiful coastal challenge with punishing Kikuyugrass rough and tough Poa greens, south course boasts seven par 4s above 450+ yards, looking for some good long ball strikers with plenty of 175-200 yards second shots.

TORREY PINES NORTH COURSE

Is a Par 72 7,258 yards designed in 1957 by William Francis Bell and  Tom Weiskopf re-design 2016, coastal track with water in play on one hole, the fairways are Bermudagrass overseeded with Ryegrass and the rough is Kikuyugrass with Ryegrass, the greens are Bentgrass and 10.5 stimp, it also ranks 48 of 50 in difficulty, there are 5 par 4s 450+ yards with the 2nd the longest at 495 yards, having said that there are plenty of birdie chances to be had on this course.

Past Ten Winners

2023 HOMA  -13

2022 LIST -15

2021 REED -14

2020 LEISHMAN -15

2019 ROSE -21

2018 DAY -10

2017 RAHM -13

2016 SNEDEKER -6

2015 DAY -9

2014 STALLINGS -9

Weather

The current forecast for Thursday is sunny overcast with a high of 62F  and wind SW at 5-10 mph, friday is intervals of clouds and sunshine, high 68F winds N at 5-10 mph, Saturday is partly cloudy skies , high 71F, winds N at 5-10 mph, Sunday is partly cloudy skies, high 72F, winds NNE at 5-10 mph.

Max Homa 10/1 - 3pts Win

Max is going to be high on peoples list this week, last year for me he was one of the most improved players on the tour, he was a standout player in the Ryder Cup, Homa won twice last year, the Farmers and the Nedbank on the DP World Tour, he also had 9 top tens, his stats from last year were SGTTG 24th- OTT 41th- APP 26th - ARG 33rd- PUTT 6th- SGTOTAL 9th- APP175-200 53rd, Max has gained over 20 TTG the last 5 tournaments and 6.2 on Approach he's also gained 3.2 around the greens which will come in handy at Torrey, he's had a mixed bag here, his record reads 1st- mc- 18th -9th- mc- mc -mc, Max is different gravy now, his game is up there with the best of them.

Min Woo Lee 28/1 - 3pts EW 8 places

This boy is on a roll, after last year's efforts he's going to be very popular in the coming season, Lee has a presence and a smile that lights up the PGA, it's only a matter of time before he gets his first win, Min Woo is up to as high as 36th in the world, he won twice last year with him winning in Australian PGA Championship and the Macao open in Asia, Lee also had 7 top tens with him T6th at the Players and at the majors he gave a good showing he was T18 PGA - T5 US Open - T41 Open, his first comp this year he finished T21 at the Amex gaining 6.8 total, he's been gaining on most spheres apart from approach, but being so early in the season he can only improve, what he's got going for him is a great short game and scrambling is his thing which will be important here.

Sepp Straka 50/1 - 1pt EW 8 places

I can't leave this man out at the moment, he has been playing some good golf, only outdone by world number one in the Hero last time, Sepp was one of our Ryder Cup heroes last year, he also won at the John Deere and played well at both the Open Championship finishing T2 and T7 at the PGA Championship, Straka has faired well here, the four times he's played he's finished 16th-32nd-MC-13th, seems he's taken a likening to Torrey, he has the right game for this course, yes he can be a bit wayward off the tee but he's a great iron player, with him finishing 23rd on Approach last season, his stats from the sentry are a plus gaining in all apart from ARG, he does need to play well around the greens to win this and has shown he can.

Greyson Sigg 200/1 - 0.5pt EW 8 places

Well, your all thinking 200/1 but we've already had Kirk 200/1- Murray 400/1- Dunlap 350/1, so it's Sigg's turn to hit the win, I think the bookies have disrespected this guy with those odds, last week he finished 17th gaining 5.9 total, the last two prior he finished 66th at the sony, and 8th at the RSM with him gaining 4.7 TTG and 4.1 APP, last year he was 53rd TTG- 83rd OTT- 65th APP- 77th ARG- 96th PUTT, his proximity from 175-200  has gained him  3.9 in the last 5 and at the Sony 9.2 and 7.3 at the RSM, Greyson has only played Torrey twice, he was T62 at the US Open and 34th at the farmers, the fact is Sigg is an outside bet but i wouldn't be surprised if he gets his maiden win here and at 200/1 he's worth a punt.

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