John Nelson's golf betting tips: Mexico Open preview and bets

John Nelson's Mexico Open Golf Tips

ERIK VAN ROOYEN 30/1-3PTS EW 8PLS 365

TAYLOR PENDRITH 30/1-2PTS EW 8PLS 365

DOUG GHIM 40/1-2PTS EW 8PLS BYL

MACKENZIE HUGHES 50/1-1PT EW 8PLS 365

NATE LASHLEY 66/1-0.5PTS EW 8PLS WH

ANDREW NOVAK 100/1-0.5PTS EW 8PLS 365

Last week we saw Matsuyama dismantle Riviera like a madman possessed, not many players can shoot 30 on the back nine, and Willy Z gave a good showing finishing T2 after his back recovery, seems like players with bad backs are the ones to be on... This week we move on to the Mexico Open, the field is diluted but we do have last year's winner, Tony Finau.

Course

Vidanta Vallarta

The course is over 7,500 yards, a par 71 Greg Norman coastal track with large Paspalum fairways and greens. The rough is short and gives the green light for bombers to bring their A-game. There is water in play on 12 holes, the wind and bunkers are the course's normal defence but the forecast is for low winds, so expect another birdie fest, we are primarily looking for a player with a good long iron game, and we are also looking for some good Paspalum putters, last two years the stats show strokes gained putting was a key component along with a strong strokes gained Tee To Green and Approach, were also looking at proximity gained from 150-175 - 175-200 and 200+, as for Efficiency on scoring par 4, 450-500 is where the strokes can be gained also the 7th which is a drivable 297yards, we will also see scoring on the par 5s, 16th its the easiest hole on the course so expect eagle chances, and the par 5- 18th is also a scoring hole.

Key Stats To Consider

SG DRIVING DISTANCE

SG APPROACH

SG PUTTING PASPALUM

PROXIMITY 150-175

PROXIMITY 175-200+

SG TEE TO GREEN

Correlation

There are a couple of courses that have the same Paspalum greens, Puerto Rico Open and Corales Puntacana, more so the Puerto as Tony has won there and Vallarta, there are several players who have played well at both.

ERIK VAN ROOYEN 30/1-3PTS EW 8PLS 365

We're starting our card with a solid costal player, he gained his first win on the PGA Tour at the Barracuda Championship in 2021 a 7,480, and then the World Wide Technology Championship, where the course is a coastal track and over 7,452, with Paspalum greens, it's been well documented about his good pal Jon Trasamer who passed away and inspired him to the victory in late November 2023, it's been a steady start to the year with him T22 at the Sentry with a couple of 65s, he then went onto the Sony and T52 and then two good plays at the Amex and Pebble with finishes of T25 and T20, the only blip is an MC at the Waste Management which looking at past results aint his bag, Eric has only played here once finishing T33 he started well with 64-66 but two bad rounds Saturday and Sunday put pay to his chances, seemingly the putter was not playing ball, he's gained on all apart from ARG this year, this is definitely a good fit for him.

TAYLOR PENDRITH 30/1-2PTS EW 8PLS 365

Hopefully, we can get another Canadian win on the board this year with Nick Taylor already breaking my heart beating Hoffman at 300s, Pendrith has been posting some great numbers already he's only played three tourneys with two top tens and an MC at the Amex which is not a surprise after missing the cut last year, like EVR, also only played here once just finishing in front of him in 30th, Pendriths numbers look good with really strong TTG numbers, the two top tens he's gained 5.7 PUTT,

his long irons are what he's about in 2023 season he was 6th in proximity 175-200 yards, the end of 2023 he finished 3rd-15th and 8th with two of them being coastal tracks, Taylor plays well at easy scoring courses and Vallarta is one of them.

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DOUG GHIM 40/1-2PTS EW 8PLS BYL

Doug has made a good start to 2024 with him finishing T13th at the Farmers and T12th at the Waste Management, he gained 11.4TTG- 3.3OTT- 5.7APP- 2.4ARG- 2.5PUTT, his numbers on proximity at 150-175 and 175-200 are good at both courses and with such a solid start I'm a big believer in momentum, Ghim is still a maiden and with that, we're taking him on trust, 2023 was rather up and down with 11 missed cuts and 11 top 30s, but he played well at a couple of correlating courses finishing 15th at the WWT, 16th Corales Putacana, he,s got an MC here and 33rd in 2022, last year he was 10th in driving accuracy and 20th in total driving, he's not the longest but makes up in other areas, he was 6th in GIR percentage, we are taking a chance on his putting, it does seem to be his Achilles heel, but has gained on the last two rounds which can only be a good sign.

MACKENZIE HUGHES 50/1-1PT EW 8PLS 365

Mac showed signs of a revival at Riviera, he was only four off the lead going into the final round, only for him to shoot +3 and finish T31, which was much better than what he produced the two previous starts, he finished strong at the end of 23 the last two tourneys, he finished T7th at the WWT with only his first round of 71 letting him down and he finished sole second at the RSM where he shot a 60-63 along the way and was only done by the brilliance of Aberg shooting two last rounds of 61, Hughes has won twice on the PGA, the last time was in 2022 at Sanderson Farms, there's no reason why in this weak field he can't contend again, he's not played here but has played well at correlating courses he's finished 2nd-3rd at the Corales Puntacana, Mac is worth chancing at 50s.

NATE LASHLEY 66/1-0.5PTS EW 8PLS WH

I'm going back in on Lashley after he burned me when he missed the cut at the Waste Management. Nate has faired ok here, he finished T39th in 2023 and 11th in 2022, he also has played well at correlating courses, he's finished 3rd-7th-8th at Puerto Rico and 4th-15th-28th-28th at the Corales Puntacana, his stats in 2023 show he finished 22nd GIR, 22nd in Proximity, 54th in PUTT, 45th TTG, more notably he was 15th in proximity 175-200 yards, which as you know is important at this course, its been a long time since he went to the well, he last won in 2019, it's time for him to close the deal again.

ANDREW NOVAK 100/1-0.5PTS EW 8PLS 365

Think this could be the first time I've played Novak, and I'm taking a chance on one good round, but this year there have been some outrageous outcomes at bigger prices, well here we go, Novak played really well at the Waste Management finishing T8th, he started with two great rounds of 65-65 but finished 69.72, and 8 shots off the winner, but you'd have to be happy gaining 5.2TTG -5.2APP and 3.2 PUTT, he also gained in proximity 150-175, he also gained 3.4 on par 5 scoring 500-600, there is plenty to be pleased with especially his long irons, even last years stats was encouraging 32nd TTG- 10thAPP- 40thARG- 70thPUTT, proximity to the hole 7th, he was 2nd in APP-RGH 200-225, and 8th 175-200, which for this course will be andventitous, Andrew has got some course form finishing 15th in 2022 and 49th in 2023, he also played well at tha Corales finishing 11th, like i said iv'e taken a chance, but a worthy one.

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