John Nelson's golf betting tips: The Players Championship preview and bets

John Nelson's Players Championship Golf Tips

JUSTIN THOMAS 22/1 3PTS EW 8PLS BYL

MAX HOMA 28/1-2PTS EW 7PLS BET UK

TOMMY FLEETWOOD 45/1-1PT EW 8PLS SKY

TONY FINAU 50/1-0.5PTS EW 8 PL PP

BRIAN HARMAN 50/1-0.5PTS EW 8 PLS SKY

We are nearly a quarter of the way through the season and have seen a large number of unprecedented winners since January, but normal service has been resumed somewhat with world number one Scottie Scheffler back in the winner's circle after taking down the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. However, I'm not convinced though that we've seen the last of the 100/1+ winners this year.

Now we're on to probably most people's favourite tournament outside the majors, the prestigious Players Championship, with as always a stellar field in tow, this year marks the 50th anniversary since the 1974 event which was won by no other than Jack Nicklaus, the purse for Players is $25,0000 dollars and 750 Fedex points, also a 5-year tour exemption so plenty up for grabs.

COURSE

TPC SAWGRASS, STADIUM COURSE

It's a par 72- 7,275 yards designed by Pete Dye in 1980, and had a Steve Wenzloff re-design in 2016, the course record is 264 set by Greg Norman. The course itself has narrow landing strips with hazards like marshes, waste bunkers, long strips of sand, dozens of pot bunkers to catch the wayward drives, and thick rough with possibly palm trees blocking your line to the green, the greens are normally rock hard with lightning fast Tiff Eagle Bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivials, water comes into play on 16 out of the 18 holes, with one of the most iconic holes in golf the 17th island green, which has seen many of the top players dunk it in the drink. Make no mistake this is not a bombers course, this is a plotters course, plenty of players will be using either a three-wood or a long iron, Thomas was quoted as saying he used a 2 iron in 2021, this is a true test of patience and several different skill sets.

PAST TEN WINNERS

2023 S SCHEFFLER -17

2022 CAM SMITH -13

2021 J THOMAS -14

2019 R MCllROY -16

2018 W SIMPSON -18

2017 SI WOO KIM -10

2016 J DAY -15

2015 R FOWLER -12

2014 M KAYMER -13

2013 T WOODS -13

CORRELATION

Harbour Town (RBC) is possibly the best one to compare, with it being designed by Pete Dye and the design has many similarities, also the cross-over of winners and placed players at both courses is hard to ignore.

KEY STATS

SG TTG

SG APR

SG GIR PERCENTAGE

SG PUTT/ POA TRIVIALS

JUSTIN THOMAS 22/1 3PTS EW 8PLS BYL

Justin has made a promising start to the season and can be forgiven for his missed cut at the Genesis, so far this season he's recorded T12-MC-T12-T6-T3 with him gaining on TTG-APP-BS-OTT at all venues apart from the Genesis, this year he's 8th TTG- 30th APP- 21st ARG 25th TOT- 136th PUTT. JT's putting has been hit and miss, but Thomas hasn't hit those numbers for some time, his ball striking has been very impressive gaining at least 3 strokes each round and approach as far back as November last year, Thomas, as you know, is a winner here and has not missed a cut here, we know its been a couple of years since his play-off win in the PGA Championship beating my boy Wille Z, Thomas is a born winner and his time is now to get back in the winner's circle.

MAX HOMA 28/1-2PTS EW 7PLS BET UK

So far this year we've not seen the Max we all know and love, after last year's exploits you could say it's been disappointing so far. He's showing some signs however of the Max of old, he finished T8th last week, yes he still lost strokes on ball striking, but plenty to be pleased with, his stats last year show he was in a better place with him SG TOT 9th- 41st OTT- 26th APP- 6th APP, this year not so good, but form is temporary and class is permanent, his course form is limited due to only featuring three times here T6th 2023 gaining 4.7BS and 6.2 APP, T13th 2022 gaining 3.9BS- 8.2APP, and MC in 2021, its clear he likes it here and suits his game, the boys potential is limitless, for me he's a major champion in waiting.

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TOMMY FLEETWOOD 45/1-1PT EW 8PLS SKY

Well, last week is one to forget for Tommy, not going to mention his ten on the 6th par 5, only bettered by Knapp's 12 on it. Tommy has been playing half decent, he has a win on the DP Tour in January shooting 66-63, he followed up that with T14-T31-T10, So yes im forgiving him for last week, Tommy likes it here he's played it six times and missed the cut once, he's gained 13.53BS-26.8APP and 33.5 Total in the six times he's played here, so were getting value for world number 12, he's also shot some low rounds here 66-65 finishing first round leader twice, Fleetwood is a six-time winner on the DP Tour but is still a maiden on the PGA, he's going to do it sooner rather than later.

TONY FINAU 50/1-0.5PTS EW 8 PL PP

Big Tony has been missing since the Mexico Open when he failed to defend his title, it's been a steady but not spectacular start with him recording two top 20s one top 10 and a T47th, going through his stats he's striking the ball great and gaining on approach the last six tourneys he's gained but on ARG-PUTT he's losing strokes, he did gain In Mexico though which could be the catalyst to kick start his season, Tony has been trying different grips putting and I hope he's found something since he has been off, taking a big leap of faith with Tony and with him T19th here last year he can hopefully push on for the win.

BRIAN HARMAN 50/1-0.5PTS EW 8 PLS SKY

World number 9 is 60s in places, for me he's not being shown much respect, The Major champion has gone 17 comps without missing the cut and think he's well overpriced considering last week he finished T12th at Bay Hill gaining 5.5 ball striking and 5.3 on Approach with 6.5 Total, that's not to be sniffed at with it being such a hard course, for me Harman likes to plot his way round just like he did at Royal Liverpool if he can get that putter rolling he's going to be up there, Harman has come close here finishing T3rd and T8th he's also played this place 8 times missing the cut twice, so no reason to not put the good ball striking into play and giving a good account of himself.

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