Open De Espana preview and betting tips by Ashley Wilkes
Open De Espana Golf Tips
Thriston Lawrence 35/1 1.75pt e/w 8 places – Ladbrokes
Jorge Campillo 45/1 1.25pt e/w 8 places – Ladbrokes
Tom Lewis 66/1 1pt e/w 7 places – Paddy Power/Betfair
Daniel Gavins 100/1 0.5pt e/w 7 places – Paddy Power/Betfair
Nino Bertasio 250/1 0.25pt e/w 6 places – Skybet
Niklas Lemke 250/1 0.25pt e/w 7 places – Paddy Power/Betfair
Now that the Dunhill Links is out of the way we get back to the more normal golf tournaments this week. Club De Campo Villa in Madrid is the host venue, 7100 yard Par 71 course. The two renewals hosted here have been dominated by longer hitters who have combined their length with good iron play and putting on that week. That’s the formula I’ll be sticking to this week as well.
Jon Rahm leads the market at 5/2 and while he’s clearly the most obvious winner I’m happy to oppose him at that price, none of the others at the very top make much appeal to me at all. Moving further down, while I think Yannik Paul is playing some excellent golf currently and should be suited by the course, I think he’s been found by the market at 33/1 and therefore my first selection goes to Thriston Lawrence who is also playing well but has the winning experience Paul lacks. His iron play has been solid all season ranking 29th in Strokes Gained approach for the year, and with 2 wins under his belt he will be full of confidence.
Next up is the only Spaniard on my card this week, Jorge Campillo. Spanish players have a brilliant record in this event winning 3 of the last 5 renewals. Campillo ranks 56th in Strokes Gained Approach this season but ranks 3rd in this field for the same metric over the last 2 months. Longer than average off the tee without being an out and out bomber, this course should suit even if his course form doesn’t say that yet. He’s had plenty of good putting weeks when his irons weren’t firing, so we just need the two to combine this week for him to have a chance.
Next up is Tom Lewis, currently ranking 153rd on the Race to Dubai rankings, he needs a few good weeks to secure his card for next year. I like the Portugal Masters course as a correlating course for this event and Tom Lewis has won there on multiple occasions. Long off the tee and impressive with his irons recently, the Englishman will surely be targeting this and the Portugal Masters in a few weeks as his best chances.
Daniel Gavins also makes the card this week, another reasonably long hitter who has found some iron form recently. 6th last week represents his best finish this calendar year and it’s one he should be able to build on here in Spain. It’s a different test this week for sure, but Gavins does have some Spanish form finishing 11th in the Andalucia Masters last year.
Finally rounding off the card two 250/1 shots. Nino Bertasio a long-hitting Italian, who has a string of good performances on the Iberian peninsula. 5th at the Portugal Masters last year including a 61 in Round 1, along with a very impressive Valderrama record shows he likes this type of test. He’s had a few weeks off now to recharge the batteries and I expect him to outrun his price this week, I expect the same off Niklas Lemke who is starting to find some of the iron form that he had during a good spell in 2021 before he caught COVID-19. Also long off the tee, this course should be a good match for him and hopefully, he can nab a place at a big price.