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  • Writer's pictureTom Ford

Tom Ford's golf betting tips: BMW Championship preview and bets 2023

Victor Hovland

Tom Ford's BMW Championship Golf Tips

Viktor Hovland – 20/1 2pt Win

Tommy Fleetwood – 30/1 2pt Win

Max Homa – 34/1 2pt Win

Corey Conners – 40/1 2pt EW (6 Places)

Cam Davis – 60/1 1pt EW (6 Places)

Miraculous Lucas…

In a year when you thought you had seen it all. Wyndy C wins a major, and let me tell you that was a shock; but to see guys putting years together like Harman and now Lucas Glover has, its just something you could never have predicted. Lucas Glover, trundled on over to putting genius Brad Faxon not many months ago, asked for a change, tried what Adam Scott has and now he’s winning back to back events, with a putter the length of his whole body; what golf age are we living in?

Small field over at Olympia Fields…

The preview this week is going to be short, purely because we just don’t have much data to talk about. Olympia Fields was used in this exact event in 3 years ago, but has only been seen once. Actually, with how hard it played that year, I wonder if they were just giving it a rest to set it up really hard again.

The course is long, treelined and has traps everywhere. You no doubt this week need all facets of your game to be absolutely on point. The north course measures in just over 7,300 yards, it’s a Par 70, has two long par 5’s and the 8th par 3 measures around a whopping 250 yards. The fairways are tight, and the rough is punishing, you might as well call this a US Open.

There are a few creeks that effect some holes, but all in all the length and rough is the real factor that’s going to separate the field. As we know, well most of you will know, it’s a no cut event, so all 50 players will play through to Sunday and expect some of them to maybe even be in the +10 region come late on Sunday.

Everything this week builds towards some form, not just because we don’t have the data to go on from previous years, but I feel like you are not going to see many surprises at this course in particular, it’s a proper testing set up.

What comes with the classical style at Olympia Fields, also brings the normal upstate bentgrass greens, so that could be something as well to keep an eye on. The 2020 edition here, Jon Rahm won with a bit of a tee green to green masterclass at a winning score of a low -4. What was really noticeable that year, was all the best putters on that week were at the top of the leaderboard and that is really alarming for me going into the week.

BMW Championship Winners: 2022: Patrick Cantlay (-14); 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27); 2020: Jon Rahm (-4); 2019: Justin Thomas (-25); 2018: Keegan Bradley(-20); 2017: Marc Leishman (-23); 2016: Dustin Johnson (-23); 2015: Jason Day (-22); 2014: Billy Horschel (-15); 2013: Zach Johnson (-16); 2012: Rory McIlroy (-20); 2011: Justin Rose (-13); 2010: Dustin Johnson (-9).

Building my model….

Strokes gained data this week will be heavily weighted to T2G, there is no real advantage to hitting it long more than straight or likewise vice versa. As before mentioned, I expect my card this week to make up some really strong putters from the last few weeks in particular, maybe even putters that are showing something from last week that are better upstate and showed something in the 2020 edition. The greens by the way are notoriously hard and fast so a US Open or PGA Championship leaderboard from this year, is not a bad item to refresh your memory on.

Don’t expect my card to have any wayward drivers on it, nor expect a bomb and gauge type of player to be propping anything up. If you can afford it, it actually points towards a really strong week for Rory to take back his World No1 status, so watch this space with that.

You could go two ways with the holes to Par this week, either strong Par 4 players who make lots of birdies to outweigh the shots they may lose elsewhere. Or the other way which I’m going to put more focus on, some stronger longer Irons, above a maybe 175 yardage and strong Par 5 and Par 3 performance data.

Outside of the above the rest really is in my head, guys that are currently playing well, golfers I can rely on to make less mistakes that others. Steady drivers, great iron play and good recent putting data and you really don’t need to focus on anything more than that. The weather isn’t going to change much, it’s not going to be as hot as it last week, so thank god Lucas’s pants may be a bit drier, all in all, for a no cut event, it will be a great spectacle. Thankfully as well there doesn’t seem to be any players in this field that don’t deserve to be there as at one point last week we could have had that scenario and this preview may have just been a rant.

So let’s go, and if your still stuck, go with your heart not your head and you won’t be far away I’m sure.

This Open Championship Model;

SG : Tee to Green

Driving Accuracy

SG OFF the Tee

Classical Positive

Approach 175 > 225

Recent Form

Bentgrass +

Driving Distance

Par 5 performance

SG Putting

Putting last 15 rounds

Greens in Reg

Golf Tips Checker Packages

Top 25 players in the model and my thoughts on each:

1 Jon Rahm 9/1

2 Rory McIlroy 15/2

3 Patrick Cantlay 10/1

4 Scottie Scheffler 15/2

5 Collin Morikawa 22/1

6 Tony Finau 40/1

7 Xander Schauffele 16/1

8 Hideki Matsuyama 33/1

9 Max Homa 22/1

10 Tyrrell Hatton 30/1

11 Viktor Hovland 16/1

12 Rickie Fowler 33/1

13 Tommy Fleetwood 20/1

14 Lucas Glover 35/1

15 Brian Harman 45/1

16 Tom Kim 33/1

17 Cameron Davis 66/1

18 Wyndham Clark 40/1

19 Jason Day 33/1

20 Russell Henley 33/1

21 Andrew Putnam 100/1

22 Sungjae Im 33/1

23 Corey Conners 45/1

24 An Byeong-Hun 66/1

25 Matthew Fitzpatrick 40/1

This will be now for the season in terms of previews, its been absolutely fantastic to write for all of you that bother to read my stuff this year and I will be celebrating all the winners with you on twitter in the next few weeks. Who knows what next year is to bring with the LIV merge and golf calendar still fairly up in the air, but I can assure you I will be around once again doing what I can to help everyone gain a few pointers and tips moving forward.

We will be back as well bigger and better and I have some huge plans to Re-Launch my site and continue with Drawshank Fantasy Golf going into the new year, with a brand new version.

As always if you want to be part of my weekly fantasy competition, look out for my updates on my twitter and my site

Please visit @GolfTipsChecker for Andy’s weekly charts and look out for my full card across my twitter @fordysgolfpicks. Good luck to you all. Get Involved.

Viktor Hovland – 20/1 2pt Win

3 weeks in a row, nothing changes, he has it all. Came close last week bar a couple of bad holes, puts them right and will be banging down the door. We also seen his performance at Oak Hill earlier this year which suggests this really does set up for him well.

Tommy Fleetwood – 30/1 2pt Win

In the form of his life, the bridesmaid can become the bride this week, nothing needs to change.

Max Homa – 34/1 2pt Win

Strong putting performance last week suggests Max is starting to show signs he can perform like he did at the start of the year when he was winning. We know what he can do off the tee, put it together and he won’t be far away.

Corey Conners – 40/1 2pt EW (6 Places)

Giving Corey one last chance and again another one who is showing signs of a good putter. Performed well here in 2020, showed glimpses of what he can do off fairways so keep the ball out the rough and were looking at another breakthrough.

Cam Davis – 60/1 1pt EW (6 Places)

Another really in form guy, more than happy to take another bullet on him here. Hasn’t lost any strokes on any part of his game for 5 weeks. Maybe my only EW play.

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