Andalucia Masters preview and betting tips by Ashley Wilkes
Andalucia Masters Golf Tips
Yannik Paul 45/1 1.25pt e/w 8 places – Bet 365
Richard Mansell 50/1 1pt e/w 6 places – Skybet
Thorbjorn Olesen 60/1 1pt e/w 8 places – Bet 365
Jorge Campillo 70/1 0.75pt e/w 6 places – Skybet
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia 125/1 0.5pt e/w 8 places – Boylesports
Sebastian Soderberg 125/1 0.5pt e/w 8 places – Bet 365
Unsurprisingly Jon Rahm took the victory last week, he’s become very good at winning these low-grade European tournaments where he’s a short-priced favourite, so I’m very glad to see him not in the field this week at Valderrama. The short, tight, undulating course is the host this week in an event which often has a winning score in single figures under par rather than the -20 we’re used to. While many holes don’t require driver off the tee, past leaderboards are littered with good drivers off the ball at the top of them (Sergio, Rahm, Arnaus). The tiny green complexes mean that in addition to good drivers off the ball I’m also looking for tidy short-game players this week to be successful.
Matt Fitzpatrick leads the market here at 11/2 and I couldn’t put you off backing him win only and calling it a day. He’s a better player than he was when he won this last year and he’s shown himself capable of defending titles before, but there’s a few at bigger prices I like so I haven’t taken Fitz this week and I’m hoping for an off week. Instead, my first selection goes to Yannik Paul. The lesson learnt over the last few years of European/DP World Tour betting is that PGA tour form is worth a lot more than European form. The latest person to prove this was Paul Barjon at the Open De France. Barjon had barely made a cut before coming over to a course that should not have suited him in the slightest and ended up with a Top 5 finish. But back to our German selection, Paul showed some decent stuff across the pond with 2 top 20s and a tie for 36th across his 3 PGA appearances. Since coming back to Europe he’s managed another 2 Top 10s to add to his collection and he’s not far away from that sought after win. I singled him out last week and concluded he was a little short, but he’s a much bigger price this week and it’s enough to draw me in at 45/1.
Next up is Richard Mansell, one of the best drivers of the ball on tour, he’s certainly in the Sergio Garcia mould of previous winner here. My only real concern is if he’s capable of getting over the line and actually winning, but he’s young enough to learn from his near misses and hopefully get over the line in the near future. Jordan Smith also came under serious consideration for his brilliant driving but with Mansell nearly double his price it’s Mansell who got my selection this week.
The stand out price of the week though I believe is Thorbjorn Olesen. 60/1 on a player who before being blown around at the Dunhill Links was playing some excellent golf. 3 cuts made out of 3 here, with 2 Top 20s, a proven winner playing well I was expecting 40/1. If he can combine the ball striking from France with his best-putting performances he will be tough to beat.
Jorge Campillo is the continuity candidate of the week. I would think this course is made for Campillo, he’s a very tidy golfer, solid off the tee, can get hot with irons and has a pretty good short game ranking 18th around the green this season. He’s won before at this level and I think he’s the best chance for the home nation to win this once again.
To round the card off we have another Spaniard with Alfredo Garcia-Heredia. I’ve backed him a number of times this season and he’s been really consistent without ever really threatening to win. While that didn’t change last week, his 6th place finish was another step forward, and I think Valderrama should suit even if the course form doesn’t really say that. This season he’s 28th off the tee, 53rd on approach and 34th tee to green. 125/1 seems more than fair and hopefully, he can give the home crowd something to cheer about. Also, at 125/1 the final selection goes to Sebastian Soderberg. 2nd in this last year and the ability to get hot at tree-lined courses like the Belfry and Crans means he’s the ideal candidate at a big price for this.