John Nelson's golf betting tips: Waste Management Phoenix Open preview and bets

John Nelson's WM Phoenix Open Golf Tips

Scottie Scheffler 11/2 - 5pts win

Justin Thomas 16/1 - 3pts ew 8pls sky

Benny An 40/1- 1 pt ew 5pls 365

Si Woo Kim 66/1-0.5pts ew 8pls pp

Kurt Kitayama 80/1 0.5 pts ew 7pls sky

It's been the year of longshots so far on the PGA Tour, with Wyndham Clark keeping the trend going after taking down a shortened Pebble Beach at odds of around 100/1. We now move on to the spectacle that is Waste Management with the famous amphitheatre that is the 16th hole.

Course

Stadium Course TPC Scottsdale

Par 71, Length 7,261 yards; designed by Tom Weiskopt and Jay Morrish in 1995 and re-designed by Weiskopt in 2014, The course is a desert style with 6 water hazards in play, the fairways are Bermudagrass with perennial rye and fine fescue, rough is Bermudagrass overseeded with perennial rye and fine fescue, greens are TifEagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivials and Ryegrass running 12 on the stimp meter, the course has 11 par 4s, three pas 5s and four par 3s, most the par 4s are easily reached if you're still in the fairway, the longest is the 14th at 490, the par 5s are scoreable with the course at altitude, we do have to talk about the par 3s namely the 16th which is the diamond of the course, we have 20,000 fans surrounded the hole baying for a hole in one, last man to do that was Sam Ryder in 2022.

Key Stats To Consider

DRIV ACC

SG TTG

SG APR

SG PUTT BERMUDA

PROXIMITY TO THE HOLE 150-175

TOP TEN BALL STRIKING

LAST 13 WINNERS WERE TOP 15 IN GREENS IN REGULATIONS

DRIVING ACCURACY IS IMPORTANT, MOST OF THE STATS ARE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS COURSE BUT DRIV ACC IS LOWER HERE.

Past Ten Winners

2023 SCHEFFLER -19

2022 SCHEFFLER -16

2021 KEOPKA -19

2020 SIMPSON -17

2019 FOWLER -17

2018 WOODLAND -18

2017 MATSUYAMA -17

2016 MATSUYAMA -14

2015 KEOPKA -15

2014 STADLER -16

Weather

Thursday has predicted 80% chance of rain, a high of 10 with between 9-17mph winds, Friday is overcast with a high of 14 and winds 6-11 mph, Saturday is sunny 16 and winds of 8-16 mph, Sunday is sunny with high 15 and winds of 4-12 mph.

Scottie Scheffler 11/2 - 5pts win

There is only one place to start and that's world number one, Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler is going for three in a row and there's no reason why he can't do it again, yes the putter has been his achilles heel but he gained at the AT&T and at Pebble, and a few good rounds can breed confidence, his form here is 1st-1st-7th. His TTG stats are second to none, you have to go as far back as 2022 to find him losing strokes, pretty much the same in the OTT department, 2022 again the last time he lost strokes, last year he was first in most stats apart from you guessed it putting. This year he's been steady with a 5th at the Sentry and 17th Amex, Scottie is at home in Arizona and can make it three in a row.

Justin Thomas 16/1 - 3pts ew 8pls sky

This boy is on the up, it's been a turbulent few years and Justin is getting back to where he belongs, he's got so much talent and potential, he's actually in a better place now mentally and you can see it in his game. The last time he won was the 2022 PGA Championship where he beat my guy Willy Z in a play-off, since then he's struggled and fallen as low as 28th in the world and after being number 1 in 2020 he's moving in the right direction and will break the top ten by the end of the year, Thomas finished off 2023 with three top tens finishing 5-4-3 and then finished 3rd at the Amex with him shooting a 61 in the third round, his stats are on the up the last 5 he's gained 3.9TTG- 2.1 APP- 1.1 ARG -1.0 PUTT, he also likes it here finishing 13th-3rd-3rd-17th-17th, with a couple of missed cuts along the way, you dont have to be a psychic to see he's trending towards a win and this could be his week.

Benny An 40/1- 1 pt ew 5pls 365

I'm back in again with Benny, yes he wasn't at his best at Pebble, but that can be forgiven, his form however has been good, so far this year he's finished second at the Sony gaining 8.3 TTG- 4.5 OTT - 1.8 APP-2.0 ARG- 3.4 PUTT and finished 4th at the sentry gaining 4.9 TTG- 1.2 OTT- 0.6 APP- 2.0 ARG- 2.6 PUTT, the end of last year he put a good run together, yes he's still waiting for his maiden win and its been 14 years since he came on the scene, he's closer than ever to doing that, AN has played well here with him finishing 53-9-20-23-6-25 gaining 25.6 TTG- 14.4 APP- 11.7 ARG- 3.8 PUTT, with him not missed a cut here. Benny has got a liking for Bermuda, he won on the KFT on Bermuda greens and most of his close finishes have been on Bermuda, his stats this year are good, yes were only four tourneys in but his game is in a good place, hes 10th TTG - 19th OTT- 73rd APP- 17th APP -20TH PUTT- 6th SG Total this year, and points to a first win for him.

Si Woo Kim 66/1-0.5pts ew 8pls pp

We have some great South Koreans on the tour and Si Woo is up there with the best of them, he's played well since the start of the year, gaining in every stat apart from putting but as we know he has won four times and all of them were on Bermuda, yes we are taking a chance but when you're driving the ball that well and striking your irons like he is it's hard to ignore. Last year he was 11th in driving accuracy and 19th Tee To Green, 25th Off The Tee, 44th Around The Green, 44th On Approach and 26th in Scrambling, in previous wins, he gained considerably on the TTG and yes he's gained 5.7 pebble 6.3 Sony, Kim also brings course form to the table finishing 23rd in 2023, 26th in 2022, which can only enhance his chances.

Kurt Kitayama 80/1 0.5 pts ew 7pls sky

My final pick is Kitty, and he's no pussycat, the boy is turning in some solid efforts and will be rewarded sooner or later, in his last 5 tourneys he finished 24th Sony- 29th Sentry- 16th ZOZO- 41st BMW championship- 52nd at the St Jude, his stats have been ok, this year he's gained 7.9TTG and 6.3 APP, we do need the flat stick to start playing ball, and we know he can putt on Bermuda he showed that by winning at the Arnold Palmer gaining 5.6 putt, Kurt has also won on the DP World Tour winning in the Oman Open in 2019, and the Marutius Open in 2018, both of them are coastal tracks and have waste areas pretty simular to TPC Scottsdale, Kurt has only played the WMPO once in 2023 finishing T23rd and might have been a bit closer if hed not shot a four over 75 to start, Kitty has only been on the Tour since 2016 and for some reason has only played here once but he's not got to world number 33 without playing some seriously good golf.

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