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  • Writer's pictureAshley Wilkes

Portugal Masters preview and betting tips 2022

Olesen has made the cut in his last 4 events.

Portugal Masters Golf Tips

Thorbjorn Olesen 30/1 1.75pt e/w 8 places – Bet 365

Marcel Schneider 45/1 1.25pt e/w 8 places – Bet 365

Matthieu Pavon 45/1 1.25pt e/w 6 places – Unibet

Nacho Elvira 100/1 0.5pt e/w 8 places – Bet 365

Marc Warren 150/1 0.25pt e/w 6 places - Skybet

The worst run I’ve been on since starting to record my golf betting back in 2019 is over! Yannik Paul wins at 25/1 to bring a 9-week wait for a winner since Ewen Ferguson to an end. It certainly wasn’t easy watching on Sunday afternoon as every leader tried to throw away the tournament but when the music stopped Paul was left holding the prize. We move on to the final leg of the Iberian tour and the last full-field event of the season, this week will be dominated by stories of players trying to keep their card or players trying to get into the 2 limited-field events which close the season. The course itself Dom Pedro Victoria has been the home of the Portugal Masters since its inaugural event back in 2007. It is a typical Arnold Palmer golf course with more space off the tee before narrowing as you get closer to the green, but generally, the course does not hold many defences against professional golfers and a low winning score is in store for us this week. The forecast is currently saying a calm Thursday and Friday before the wind picks up a little over the weekend, so I’m not expecting any particular draw bias.

The top of the market has names which have to be respected, especially Eddie Pepperell whose approach play has been off the charts good for a number of weeks now, but at 22/1 he fails to make the card this week. My first selection instead goes to consistent winner Thorbjorn Olesen. Yet to miss a cut here in 8 visits, he’s been playing well over the last few weeks without ever threatening to win. This has been due to his best ball-striking weeks coinciding with his worst putting weeks. This is sure to change eventually, and his best is easily capable of getting the win here, the added room off the tee will help and we know if he can get into contention he doesn’t have the fear of winning so many on this tour have.

Another golfer who can’t seem to match up ball striking and putting weeks is Marcel Schneider. I’m sure regular readers of this article will be saying, you can’t tip him again! However, my persistence paid off with Paul last week and I’m hoping it will with his fellow countryman this week, another good ball striking week last week secured another top 25 finish and he just needs the putter to fire to compete for the win. He is a very good putter though so I have no doubt it will come good eventually.

Third on the shortlist is Matthieu Pavon, the Frenchman finished 2nd here last year and you can see why. A strong driver off the ball who when firing is as good as iron player as most on the tour. He’s 8th this season for eagles per round, and 38th for birdies per round, showing he’s certainly capable of going low when required. He also has a 2nd place in the Iberian swing under his belt this season finishing 2nd behind Jon Rahm in the Open de Espana which is no disgrace at all!

Finally, we round off the card with 2 golfers over 100/1. First up Nacho Elvira, the Spaniard should have his card wrapped up for next year, but unless he has a good finish this week he will be missing out on the limited field events, this should give him the freedom to go out and play without the stress of losing his card but with the possibility of extending his season. He has 2 top 10 finishes here before and is going under the radar thanks to a poor putting week last week, his ball striking was competitive and has been all across this Iberian swing. Rounding off the card is Marc Warren, who is also coming off a bad putting week last week however, his ball striking was close to the best in the field, even an average putting week would have secured him a top 10. At 150/1 in good ball-striking form and a previous 2nd place finish here, it’s a must-bet, I was expecting 100/1.

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